This is a crucial week for Bitcoin. It needs to rally to approximately $60,000, a key price point, to sustain the continuation of the bull market. Failure to do so increases the likelihood of entering a macro bear market. To avoid this, Bitcoin must break through the resistance at the trendline shown in the chart below, where it converges with the 21-week moving average.
My Prediction
I believe the probability of Bitcoin breaking resistance and continuing the bull market is higher than the bear scenario. Here are some metrics that validate this thesis:
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has not flashed a top yet where in the past cycles the 111DMA moves up and crosses the 350DMA.
Data from Santiment shows whales continue to accumulate Bitcoin as wallets with 100-1000 BTC are on the rise.
Wake Me Up When September Ends
As stated in the previous newsletter seasonality metrics show September is a very bad month for markets but Q4 is great. Julie Bittel shared something that is very interesting, tweeted the following chart on X and stated:
“This year’s Bitcoin price structure is starting to look eerily similar to 2019... Take a close look at the chart – it’s almost a perfect fractal of what we saw back then. Bitcoin has been stuck in a consolidation phase, and interestingly, just like in 2019, this consolidation has lasted exactly 175 days (so far). We’re now approaching that critical juncture where things could start moving in a big way.
The next week will be incredibly important to watch. All eyes on how Bitcoin reacts as we hit this potential inflection point – does it follow the 2019 script, or do we see a deviation this time around? Let’s see... If the fractal holds, we could be looking at some serious upside momentum coming.”
Checkout my recent interview with Dan from 360Trader. He makes the case for the bull market not being over and provides chart analysis on Bitcoin and Ethereum and Price Predictions for BTC, ETH, Solana, & XRP.
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💥Thank You to my show Sponsors
Uphold is one of the best crypto exchanges out there and I have been using them since 2018!
Gemini makes it easy to trade crypto with many unique features and prodcuts.
BitGo is one of the top custodians in the crypto industry. They provide the most secure and scalable solutions for the digital asset economy, offering regulated custody, borrowing and lending.
VeChain is a leading enterprise-grade L1 public blockchain, spearheading a digital revolution from a sustainable, highly scalable smart contract platform.
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📰 Latest Crypto News:
Japan's largest electricity company, Tokyo Electric Power, to use renewable energy to mine Bitcoin. - source
Brokerage Bernstein said in a Research Report on Monday that if Donald Trump Wins the US Election in November, Bitcoin Is Expected To Hit A New High Later This Year, And The Cryptocurrency May Reach $90,000 By The Fourth Quarter. - source
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🚨 Critical Week For Bitcoin!
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Bitcoin Needs To Make Gains!
Hey Thinkers 💡
This is a crucial week for Bitcoin. It needs to rally to approximately $60,000, a key price point, to sustain the continuation of the bull market. Failure to do so increases the likelihood of entering a macro bear market. To avoid this, Bitcoin must break through the resistance at the trendline shown in the chart below, where it converges with the 21-week moving average.
My Prediction
I believe the probability of Bitcoin breaking resistance and continuing the bull market is higher than the bear scenario. Here are some metrics that validate this thesis:
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has not flashed a top yet where in the past cycles the 111DMA moves up and crosses the 350DMA.
Data from Santiment shows whales continue to accumulate Bitcoin as wallets with 100-1000 BTC are on the rise.
Wake Me Up When September Ends
As stated in the previous newsletter seasonality metrics show September is a very bad month for markets but Q4 is great. Julie Bittel shared something that is very interesting, tweeted the following chart on X and stated:
“This year’s Bitcoin price structure is starting to look eerily similar to 2019... Take a close look at the chart – it’s almost a perfect fractal of what we saw back then. Bitcoin has been stuck in a consolidation phase, and interestingly, just like in 2019, this consolidation has lasted exactly 175 days (so far). We’re now approaching that critical juncture where things could start moving in a big way.
The next week will be incredibly important to watch. All eyes on how Bitcoin reacts as we hit this potential inflection point – does it follow the 2019 script, or do we see a deviation this time around? Let’s see... If the fractal holds, we could be looking at some serious upside momentum coming.”
Checkout my recent interview with Dan from 360Trader. He makes the case for the bull market not being over and provides chart analysis on Bitcoin and Ethereum and Price Predictions for BTC, ETH, Solana, & XRP.
___________________________________________
💥Thank You to my show Sponsors
Uphold is one of the best crypto exchanges out there and I have been using them since 2018!
Gemini makes it easy to trade crypto with many unique features and prodcuts.
BitGo is one of the top custodians in the crypto industry. They provide the most secure and scalable solutions for the digital asset economy, offering regulated custody, borrowing and lending.
VeChain is a leading enterprise-grade L1 public blockchain, spearheading a digital revolution from a sustainable, highly scalable smart contract platform.
___________________________________________
📰 Latest Crypto News:
Japan's largest electricity company, Tokyo Electric Power, to use renewable energy to mine Bitcoin. - source
Brokerage Bernstein said in a Research Report on Monday that if Donald Trump Wins the US Election in November, Bitcoin Is Expected To Hit A New High Later This Year, And The Cryptocurrency May Reach $90,000 By The Fourth Quarter. - source
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📈Crypto Market Metrics
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📺 Recent Interviews
Bloomberg ETF Analyst James Seyffart joined me to discuss the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs.
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📖 ReThinking Crypto Book
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-Tony