Is the Crypto Bull Market Over? 🤔
Macro factors have caused turmoil in the markets, is it all over or just a bump in the road for this bull market?
Hey Thinkers 💡
I know it’s been a while since I did a newsletter updating you all on the market. The reason for the delay was I was waiting for the markets to calm down a bit. It’s hard to see what’s on the horizon with hurricane winds of volatility blowing in your face. The stock and crypto markets have been tumbling with macro factors such as tariff uncertainty putting pressure on them. However, it seems the worst of it is over, and while we may see some slight volatility, I think the bottom is near if not already in.
Bull or Bear Market?
The recent volatility has many asking: is the bull market over? Based on the data, it is not. Here is a breakdown of what I’m looking at:
Global Liquidity is surging. Risk assets such as crypto are correlated to Global Liquidity, although there is a lag. With liquidity seeing gains, it’s just a matter of time before the stock and crypto markets catch up.
The Dollar Currency Index (DXY) is crashing, which is a very good sign for risk assets.
Market sentiment is at all-time lows, with fear at levels not seen since the COVID crash in March 2020 and the FTX collapse in December 2022. As we know, markets always do the opposite of the retail crowd. If everyone is fearful, it’s time to be greedy, and if everyone is greedy, it’s time to be fearful. This fear zone won’t last much longer as sellers will run out of steam.
Despite a recent slowdown, Bitcoin whales (wallets holding 10 or more BTC) are still holding and accumulating.
The Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator has not flashed and is, in fact, far from it.
Bitcoin Dominance continues to increase, with its highest daily candle close since 2021. Expect a breakdown soon, which will trigger the next major rally for Bitcoin and Altcoins.
The longer we stay in this corrective phase of the bull market, the more likely the blowoff top may happen in Q4 versus Q2 of this year.
So, while there are no certainties when it comes to investing, we can use the data to form a thesis on where we are today and what may happen next. The data shows we are still in a bull market and just have to stomach the volatility.
Latest Crypto News
We’ve got significant news so far this week:
Crypto exchange Binance received a $2 billion investment from Abu Dhabi’s MGX. This is the single largest investment into a crypto company and the largest investment ever paid in crypto (stablecoin).
Video platform Rumble announced a purchase of $17.1 million in Bitcoin in accordance with its previously announced Bitcoin Treasury Strategy. The company has added approximately 188 Bitcoin to its treasury at an average price of approximately $91,000 per coin.
Franklin Templeton has filed for a Franklin XRP ETF, which aims to track the spot price of XRP minus fees, with assets held via Coinbase Custody.
Securities exchange Cboe BZX is seeking permission from U.S. regulators to incorporate staking into Fidelity’s Ether ETF, according to a March 11 filing.
VanEck has registered an Avalanche (AVAX) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in Delaware, as investment managers continue to apply for various altcoin-based products.
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📺 Recent Interviews
Les Borsai, co-founder at Wave Digital Assets, joined me to discuss the problem the US Marshals has with accounting for Bitcoin and the impact it could have on the strategic bitcoin reserve.
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-Tony