Crypto Relief Rally Over or Just a Pullback? 🤔

Bitcoin and altcoins have pulled back, and things are starting to look a bit bearish.

Thinking Crypto Podcast

May 18, 2026

Hey Thinkers 💡

The crypto relief rally is running into a major roadblock.

Bitcoin failed to break through:

$82,000 resistance
The 200-Day Moving Average

That’s not what bulls wanted to see.

And naturally, altcoins — which had started showing strength — are now pulling back alongside BTC.

📊 Where Things Stand

Despite the pullback, Bitcoin is still trading within its rising channel.

However…

If BTC drops toward the bottom of the channel around $71,000, the probability increases that we complete a bear flag breakdown, potentially sending Bitcoin into the:

Low $50Ks
Or even high $40Ks

That’s the bearish setup currently on the table.

⚠️ Momentum Is Weakening

Some concerning signals:

🔻 Daily MACD flipped bearish

Momentum has shifted back toward sellers on the short timeframe.

📉 Weekly MACD shows bulls losing momentum

This doesn’t mean immediate collapse — but it does show the rally is weakening.

🎯 Key Level: $75K

Bitcoin absolutely must:

Hold above $75,000
Print an impulsive bounce

If that happens:
👉 The rally still has a chance to continue and eventually break through $82K.

If not…
👉 The bearish scenario becomes much more likely.

📉 Stock Market Pullback Adds Pressure

The stock market was overheated and finally started correcting.

Both the:

S&P 500
Nasdaq

were sitting deep in the overbought zone.

A pullback was expected — and crypto is now feeling the pressure from broader risk-off sentiment.

🔮 What Happens Next?

🟢 Scenario 1 — Relief Rally Continues

Stock market sees only a shallow pullback
Bitcoin holds $75K support
BTC resumes rally in coming weeks
Altcoins follow higher

This remains the more constructive scenario.

🔴 Scenario 2 — Deeper Bear Market Leg

Stock market correction intensifies
Geopolitical fears escalate (Iran war, etc.)
Bitcoin breaks support
BTC drops into:
- Low $50Ks
- Or high $40Ks

This is the major risk setup right now.

🧠 Why Scenario 1 Still Has Higher Probability

A couple important macro signals stand out:

🚀 SpaceX Accelerates IPO Timeline

Reports indicate SpaceX is targeting a June 12 Nasdaq listing.

Let’s be realistic:

Elon Musk is not going to rush an IPO into a collapsing market
Companies go public during bullish environments — not crashes

That’s an important sentiment signal.

🏛️ CLARITY Act Progress + Bitcoin Reserve Update

After advancing through the Senate Banking Committee, the CLARITY Act is expected to continue progressing through the Senate.

In addition:
Patrick Witt, White House crypto advisor, recently stated a major Strategic Bitcoin Reserve update is coming soon.

Both developments are long-term bullish catalysts for crypto.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🇮🇷 Iran Launching Bitcoin Maritime Insurance Platform

Iran is reportedly launching Hormuz Safe, a Bitcoin-settled maritime insurance platform targeting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf.

Projected revenue:
👉 Over $10 billion

Ironically, this situation could accelerate the U.S. government’s push toward acquiring Bitcoin for its own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

🏦 JPMorgan Expands Tokenization on Ethereum

JPMorgan Chase filed to launch a tokenized Treasury money-market fund on Ethereum: JPMorgan OnChain Liquidity-Token Money Market Fund

The product is designed to help stablecoin issuers meet reserve requirements under the GENIUS Act.

🌍 Bermuda Moves National Economy Onchain

The Bermuda government is partnering with the Stellar Development Foundation to migrate parts of its national economy onto the Stellar network.

Use cases include:

Payments
Financial services
Government infrastructure

💰 Circle’s Arc Blockchain Raises $222M

Circle raised $222 million in the presale of a token tied to its new Arc blockchain.

Key investors include:

Andreessen Horowitz
BlackRock
Apollo Global Management
Intercontinental Exchange

The network now carries a fully diluted valuation of $3 billion.

🧩 Final Thoughts

The market is at a critical crossroads.

Bitcoin failed at major resistance
Momentum is weakening
Stocks are pulling back

But:

Key support still holds
Macro catalysts remain positive
Institutions continue building aggressively

The next few weeks will likely determine whether:
👉 This relief rally continues
or
👉 The bear market resumes in full force

Stay patient. Stay disciplined.
And let the charts confirm the next move.

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📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

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📺 Recent Interviews

Landon Zinda, Counsel to the Chairman and Senior Advisor for the Crypto Task Force at the Securities and Exchange Commission, sat down with us at the Solana Policy Institute’s Summit to discuss the SEC’s guidance on crypto securities, crypto wallets, tokenization, the Clarity Act, and more.