Crypto Bottom Signals Are Flashing!👀

Key metrics and signals indicate that the bottom may be near for Bitcoin and altcoins.

Jun 29, 2026

Hey Thinkers 💡

The wild ride in crypto continues.

The bears are celebrating, and the naysayers are once again coming out of the woodwork declaring that Bitcoin is dead and headed to zero.

If you’ve been through multiple crypto cycles, you’ve heard this story before.

Rather than getting caught up in fear, headlines, or emotion, let’s focus on what matters most—the data.

And right now, multiple indicators suggest that the Bitcoin and crypto market bottom is very close, if not already in.

As I’ve mentioned in recent newsletters and podcast episodes, I’m starting to accumulate. Here’s why.

📊 The Data Is Pointing Toward a Bottom

📈 1. Bullish Divergence on the Weekly Bitcoin Chart

One of the strongest signals right now is the bullish divergence forming on Bitcoin’s weekly chart.

While Bitcoin could still experience one final dip, the divergence suggests that downside momentum is fading and a reversal is becoming increasingly likely.

Historically, this has been one of the more reliable indicators that a major bottom is forming.

💵 2. USDT Dominance Is Flashing the Opposite Signal

At the same time, we’re seeing a bearish divergence on the weekly USDT Dominance chart.

This beautifully complements Bitcoin’s setup.

As stablecoin dominance begins to weaken, it typically signals that liquidity is rotating out of stablecoins and back into crypto assets.

That’s exactly what bulls want to see.

⚰️ 3. The Death Cross That Has Marked Previous Bottoms

Analyst Blockchain Backer recently shared a compelling chart showing the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Average death cross.

While “death cross” sounds ominous, history tells a different story.

Previous occurrences have actually aligned with major Bitcoin bottoms rather than the beginning of prolonged declines.

Sometimes the scariest headlines appear at the best buying opportunities.

📅 4. The Six-Month Chart Is Repeating History

Another fascinating observation comes from Bitcoin’s six-month chart.

Historically:

Two consecutive red six-month candles
Followed by approximately three years of upside

The second red six-month candle closes in just one day.

Of course, history doesn’t have to repeat exactly.

But when viewed alongside the other signals, it strengthens the case that we’re approaching an important turning point.

📉 5. Bitcoin Supply in Loss Is at Historic Levels

One of the strongest on-chain signals is Bitcoin Supply in Loss.

Today, that metric has climbed to levels that exceed previous bear market bottoms.

In simple terms:

A massive percentage of Bitcoin holders are underwater.

Historically, when that happens, selling pressure eventually exhausts itself and long-term investors begin stepping in.

📊 6. MVRV Remains Deep Underwater

Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV has remained below zero for an extended period.

Combined with:

Extreme fear
Oversold technicals
Weakening bearish momentum

…it creates the type of environment where relief rallies often begin.

📉 7. Bear Markets Are Becoming Less Severe

One of my favorite charts this week comes from River, showing every Bitcoin bear market since inception.

The trend is clear:

Each bear market has produced smaller drawdowns than the one before.

This cycle, Bitcoin declined approximately 53% from its October 2025 all-time high to the recent $58,000 low.

That’s significantly shallower than previous cycles.

As Bitcoin matures and institutional adoption increases, extreme volatility appears to be slowly decreasing.

🤔 Could Bitcoin Still Drop Into the $40Ks?

Absolutely.

Some analysts continue calling for:

Bitcoin in the $40,000 range
A final bottom sometime around October 2026, following the historical 12-month bear market duration

That scenario remains possible.

But based on the technical and on-chain evidence discussed above, I believe it’s becoming the lower-probability outcome.

🧠 My Take

No one can consistently call the exact bottom.

But we can identify a bottom zone.

And that’s exactly what I believe we’re seeing today.

The majority of the downside appears to be behind us.

That’s why I’m personally accumulating.

I’m not expecting an immediate move to new all-time highs.

Instead, I believe the higher-probability scenario is:

A meaningful relief rally
A higher low forming
The market beginning the long process of climbing out of this bear market

Recovery won’t happen overnight.

But I do believe we’re much closer to the end than the beginning.

Stay patient.

Stay disciplined.

And remember—markets are cyclical.

The moments of maximum fear often create the greatest long-term opportunities.

🔥 Major Crypto News

🏦 Strategy Authorizes Bitcoin Monetization Program

Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin, has authorized a new Bitcoin monetization program that gives the company flexibility to sell a portion of its BTC holdings if needed.

The program allows Strategy to:

Strengthen its balance sheet
Maintain reserves for its perpetual preferred securities
Support preferred dividend payments
Fund up to $2 billion in share buybacks

While the authorization doesn’t mean the company plans to immediately sell Bitcoin, it represents a notable shift by giving management greater flexibility in how it manages its treasury assets.

📈 Securitize Heads to the NYSE

Tokenization platform Securitize is set to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SECZ on July 2.

The company is expected to raise approximately $400 million through its SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners, marking another major milestone for the tokenization industry as blockchain-native companies continue entering the public markets.

🇺🇦 Ukraine Moves Toward a National Crypto Reserve

Ukraine has transferred $8.3 million in seized USDT into state management as lawmakers continue exploring the creation of a national crypto reserve.

The move signals growing interest among governments in treating digital assets as strategic reserves and could pave the way for broader state-level adoption of cryptocurrencies.

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💥Thank You to my show Sponsors

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📈Crypto Market Metrics

Here are some key data points from Santiment

Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media

Top Gainers in Social Dominance

Top Losers in Social Dominance

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