🚀Bitcoin ATH Blow Off Top in 2024?🤑
Could Bitcoin hit its all time high and blowoff top in 2024 instead of 2025? I explain how this scenario could play out.
Hi Everyone
💡First, Bitcoin is ripping today! it crossed over $54,400 as of the time of publishing.
Myself and some other analysts have been saying for a month now that Bitcoin was due for a correction based on historical patterns. I was personally calling for Bitcoin to pullback to $35,000 and to build support levels there after it hit the .618 via the Fibonacci model, but it is now touching the .702! 😲
Here is what analyst Bob Loukas had to say about Bitcoin’s continued price increase:
💡Second, I would like to introduce a thesis which I think has a high probability of playing out. Now this is of course not financial advice and of course there are no guarantees here. But hear me out…
Bitcoin could reach its all time high and blowoff top by the end of 2024. Before I go further, let’s get some foundational facts and thoughts out of the way.
Bitcoin is correlated to the stock market and the M2 global money supply
This macro environment is very different from previous Bitcoin cycles because of record high inflation, extreme quantitative tightening with rapid interest rate increases, and a looming recession when the Fed pivots and cuts rates.
It is an election year and the Fed will not want to make major changes to avoid the appearance of bias or cause more volatility in markets. This means rate cuts between March thru October is unlikely but could happen in late November or early December.
Markets are forwarding looking, they are looking months ahead and perform accordingly. We see the Stock Market has been making new all time highs and Bitcoin has been pumping.
What if the markets are anticipating rate cuts at the end of 2024 after the Presidential Election or in early 2025 which we’ve seen historically can cause a recession? Fed rate cuts have historically also caused the markets to correct sharply - look at the chart below which shows the drops:
With that said, could the markets keep going to new all time highs because they are anticipating a correction at the end 2024 or early 2025? This would mean that in 2024 the party keeps going even with small pullbacks along the way because the drop off the cliff is coming when the Fed pivots.
If this is the case the stock market will continue making news highs and since Bitcoin is correlated plus the strong ETF buying it just avoids any major corrections and hits its all time high blow off top price around November or December 2024? 🤔
Btw, if you think the Bitcoin ETF buying is not a factor, look at what Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg tweeted today. The nine BTC ETFs keep breaking records!
So there it is - my breakdown as to why I think the Bitcoin all time high and blow off top is possible this year. But we will have to wait and see how it plays out. The macro factors and ETFs could make this happen sooner than expected.
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