A Bullish🐂 or Bearish🐻 February?
After weeks of volatility there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel for the crypto market
Hey Thinkers 💡
What a crazy couple of weeks it has been! Both the crypto and stock markets have seen incredible volatility. But is the worst behind us? I think so.
We’ve been in a healthy cool-down phase following the strong Q4 2024 bull run. Uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s inauguration and meme coin launch, the Fed’s interest rate update, DeepSeek, and tariff war fears contributed to market jitters. However, now that the dust is settling, it looks like we can get back to business.
That said, we’re not entirely out of the woods yet. I expect the markets to find their bottom by mid-February, setting the stage for a bullish month ahead. Here’s why:
📈 Key Market Drivers
🔥 Seasonality Favors Growth
Historically, both the crypto and stock markets tend to perform well from February to April. After April, there’s the classic saying: “Sell in May and go away.”
⚡ Bitcoin’s Dominance Continues to Rise
Bitcoin dominance suggests there’s still room for BTC to move higher before a potential breakdown. The chart below shows that Bitcoin dominance could climb to 71% before we see major altcoin movement.
💰 Global Liquidity on the Rise
With the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) breaking down and global liquidity increasing, conditions are aligning for higher risk asset prices.
🐳 Bitcoin Whales Keep Accumulating
Despite the volatility, whales continue accumulating BTC—a strong bullish indicator. While Bitcoin supply on exchanges has seen a minor uptick, it remains near all-time lows.
⏳ Blowoff Top in Q2 or Q4?
With the slight increase in Bitcoin supply on exchanges, the big question is: When will we see the blowoff top?
According to analyst Crypto Currently, different data points indicate a likely blowoff top in Q2 2025. However, we’re dealing with probabilities, not certainties. No one can call the exact top, but we should be watching closely for a "top zone" to start securing profits.
🇺🇸 Crypto in DC: Major Policy Developments
🚨 Big moves from the U.S. government could bring much-needed clarity to the crypto industry, attracting more capital and adoption.
🔹 White House Crypto & AI Czar David Sacks held a press conference with congressional leaders, announcing a joint working group to advance crypto legislation. His goal? Ensuring American dominance in digital assets. Sacks called crypto a “week-one priority” for the new administration and pledged to usher in a “golden age in digital assets.”
🔹 SEC’s New Crypto Task Force is actively working on long-awaited regulatory clarity. Commissioner Hester Peirce laid out 10 key priorities, including:
✔️ Defining what makes a cryptocurrency a security vs. a commodity
✔️ Modifying existing SEC paths to make registration viable
✔️ Clarifying regulations around crypto lending and staking
✔️ Determining which aspects of the market fall outside SEC jurisdiction
This is a major step toward the institutionalization of crypto in the U.S., paving the way for clearer rules and greater investor confidence.
🚀 Final Thoughts
Markets are showing signs of strength after a period of uncertainty. With seasonal trends, Bitcoin dominance, global liquidity, and institutional interest all aligning, we could be in for a strong February and beyond.
Keep your eyes on the charts, and stay ready to take profits when the time is right!
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💥Thank You to my show Sponsors
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📈Crypto Market Metrics
Here are some key data points from Santiment
Top 10 Coins Trending via Social Media
Developer Activity
The top 10 coins with the most developer activity over the past 30 days
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📺 Recent Interviews
Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, joined me to discuss the latest with Crypto ETFs. The big topic we discussed was the Nasdaq filing for in-kind redemption of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF.
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📖 ReThinking Crypto Book
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-Tony